Are Outsized Market Moves Indicating the Big One is Coming?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] –Outsized moves in SP500 –4 out 5 weeks have seen 2 sigma moves –has we seen this before? –SKEW and VVIX compound the situation –monitoring bond markets and dollar closely SPX Expected Move — –last week —  120.79   (expected move) –next week–  112.64  (expected move)

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Oil Falls, Bonds Rally, Stocks Mixed, and More for your Thursday Evening Update

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Markets are moving this week including a steeper fall in Commodity/Oil prices and a rally in both the Bond Market and – generally – equities. In tonight’s video we pinpoint our expectations going into next week, what price targets are in play, and which stocks remain on the leading edge of the sell-side activity…

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Option Bears Reloading as Bulls Feeling Spry

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The bulls appear to be feeling like they’ve accomplished something as the market looks to be positive two days in a row. However, as the bulls have their moment, the bears are adding bearish options positions and rolling up into the strength. Let’s look at some key ETFs that had unusual bearish options activity (XLB, IYR, HYG, EWC, XBI, JETS, LI, CVNA)

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Bring Back the Bear?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Is this small rally in the SPX sustainable, or are we about to enter a full-on bear market? Volume in the S&Ps included several days and was not very high. Week in and week out, the expected move is not rocking to the upside, pointing highly to a longer term bear market…

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What Kills Markets First, Inflation or the FED?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] –No easy path forward for the markets –FED will “break things” –lower volatility on heavy selling –SKEW low, obscure options volume in the SPX –yields inverted, bonds tanked and rebound –energy sees the economic slowdown coming –crypto stability evaporates –metals holding up in a strong dollar SPX Expected Move– –last week–  131.85   (expected move) –next week– 120.79   (expected move 4 day trading week)

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Stocks Continue Trend Lower after the Fed: Your Post-Fed Update

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] After a surprise rally on the Fed Fund Rate increase and press conference from the Federal Reserve yesterday, the downtrend continued in price as equity futures sold off over 3% in Thursday’s session. How many stocks joined the indexes at fresh new 52-week lows and what surprising group was on the leading edge of today’s sell-off? Find out in tonight’s Theo video update…

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Fed Rides the Painted Pony on Rates as the Inflation Wheel Spins

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The Fed kept policy in line with the recent rise in expectations with a 75 bp move. While the market received the news relatively well, the outlook is diminishing and the Fed can’t seem to find a directing sign on the straight and narrow highway. Which means more Blood, Sweat and Tears for millenials who are looking to buy a home. (XLF, FANG, TELL, AAL, GDX, HYG, KWEB, NLY)

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Your Stock and Sector Check-up before the Fed Day

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ll have the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and press conference tomorrow afternoon and will see how high the Fed lifts the Fed Funds rate and more importantly what that will mean for key sectors and key stocks in the market – which segments will lift or fall the most? Find out what the #1 market cap stock is – among the 140 names – that made new 52 week lows today in an ongoing downtrend..

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Carnage Grips Hold in the Markets

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Bonds and stocks tank as interest rates have now more than doubled since the start of the year. There is no coming back from this parabolic move in interest rates that impact every facet of the economy. There is serious risk in this market as volatility has exploded higher and liquidity has dried up. The lower end of the S&P 500 Expected Move has already been breached. Watch this crucial video newsletter update to find out what to expect in the remaining week…

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Are Markets Headed to Uncharted Territory?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Inflation, Stagflation, Recession, Rising Rates– –Sellers Return with a Vengeance –Expected Move and the 2 sigma beast –CPI too hot to handle –Bonds / Yield curve inverting 2yr vs 10yr –Big selling with a lack of volatility intensity –Volatility futures Inverting ? –Dollar explodes higher –Metals rebound –FOMC, does the FED matter? SPX Expected Move– –last week–    101.86     (expected move) –next week–   131.85    (expected move)

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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