Ukraine is the rhetorical on again, off again conflict. Investors are sifting through the details to make rational trading decisions. How do rational investors deal with seemingly irrational policy and an ever-changing news cycle? Carefully!
Are Markets Headed into the Selling Abyss? Geopolitical Tape Bomb week––Eastern Europe a constant threat to the tape–tough argument to be long headed into weekend–a duck and cover shift back to bonds–inflation took a back seat this week Edge of Market Abyss––Inflation to explode, last call for low rates–key levels in /ES and NQ–VIX hovering below 30 but ready for action–Dollar poised to breakout–retesting lows /ES 4211 and below–Monsters of Tech (aapl, amzn)–Financials lead stage the next leg lower in SP500 SPX Expected Move —–last week — 135.20 (expected move)–next week– 121.28 (four day trading week)
Today saw the broader NASDAQ technology index fall 3% as did the XLK Technology and XLY Consumer Discretionary ETFs. In tonight’s video update, we put these stocks in context of the broader market and what levels we continue to hold as important make-or-break levels. We also highlight key stocks making new lows ahead of the market and that alone is sending a key message of importance as the sell-off intensifies…
There’s still a lot of potential movement left in the final 2 days of trading this week before a long weekend. The SPX has about potentially 75 more handles to the upside and over 200 to the downside. Here’s what we are doing during the volatility spikes.
We still have the dual headlines this week of the Federal Reserve along with Russia-Ukraine topping the news and increasing risk on the week. In tonight’s video, we focus on key price levels as we remain close to the ‘middle of the middle” of current ranges in equity futures. We also highlight how distributions help us see probability and the key stocks that were strongest and weakest in today’s session (beneath the headlines)…
The term hawkish appropriately describes the policy stance of the Federal reserve and the Federal Government in regards to Ukraine. A slumping economic outlook, potential defense spending and a Fed policy error is making precious metals shine..
Market Update—-back in the volatility channel–Volatility in serious backwardation–bonds display REAL FEAR–dollar bid–Oil backwrdation Forward Looking––Monday FED Meeting–NQ under 14k becomes a free for all–Financials could suffer largest loss Volatility Tactics––SELL premium–Ultima – more time, higher skew–hedge with inside spreads SPX Expected Move —–last week — 107.37 (expected move)–next week– 135.20
Thursday morning started calmly enough until the higher than expected Consumer Price Index shook the market with the growing reality that inflation is real, it’s not transitory, and something must be done to address it. In tonight’s video, we take a direct look at how the report and ongoing trends in motion are playing out in equities, bonds, Oil, and Gold. We finish the update by pinpointing the strongest and weakest stocks moving after today’s volatility…
Even with the rippin’ rally that took place today, there appears to be a slip in volume and there doesn’t seem to a commitment to trade. What does this mean? With the CPI report looming ahead, the potential to rock the markets is a strong possibility in the coming days, tune in to tonight’s video to find out what Don is thinking…
After a volatile January, price seems to be settling down into a lower volatility range as we trade back to the middle of key price levels across markets. In tonight’s video, we highlight the major price levels in play in equity futures along with the bond market weakness against the Oil (Crude Oil /CL) strength. Finally, we plot the key triangle price level that’s been forming for over a year in Gold.
