The major market indices staged significant breakouts today, but is it a false breakout? A look at the volatility indices gives us a clue. Also, unusual option activity seemed to follow WallStreetBets mentions as EVs, crypto and cannabis did well. Also, travel is looking up after a short hiatus (NCLH, CCL, JETS, CGC, MARA, FCEL, PLUG)…
Volatility Update–GAME ON! We are still in backwardation-Trading VIX options-Dollar may be a great volatility indicator Critical Levels-SP500 critical levels – /ES 4211 – /ES 4500-Volatility Channel – aka Hurt Locker-Correlation Will YOU Fight the FED?-Long and wrong could bring unbearable risk-STOPs work! All too well in volatility-not a time to bottom fish (any 5 year chart say so)-Spreads mitigate vol exposure-Deep in the money puts to hedge long stock SPX Expected Move —–last week — 149.58 (expected move)–next week– 137.59
This week has been a volatile one, as we’ve seen earnings and big moves from key tech and large market cap stocks all week. Today – and tonight – is no exception as we saw the sell-off in Tesla (TSLA) and – so far – an after-hours rally for Apple (AAPL). In tonight’s video update, we pinpoint our key daily chart and even weekly chart price levels in play and what we’re seeing as we end January 2022….
The Fed made as much of a dovish hawkish statement as they could. Bottom line is the Fed does not have the market’s back anymore. Expect extreme volatility to continue the rest of the week. Here’s the key level to watch…
We’re continuing to see market volatility expand as more key stocks report earnings. Today we’re focusing on Microsoft (MSFT) and other key components while tomorrow we await Tesla (TSLA) and other stocks. On top of the earnings, we have the Fed Policy Announcement – a “Fed Day” – Wednesday and it could bring clarity on what the Fed is thinking about inflation and the future of interest rates, something that is interesting to us all in the market…
The market felt the pressure today as the odds of a Fed rate hike have been moving higher in recent weeks and are set to announce on Wednesday. The initial weakness turned to strength today as ARKK began to turn the corner during the day. Is this the bottom? The early UOA pointed to bullish setups (SABR, UAL, DAL, CTXS, XLI, BITO, MARA)…
Are we feeling the fear?-sectors-vol inversion-skew jumps-bonds gone bid-correlation sp100-spuz volume Magnitude of Moves-SPX 3 deviation -265pts-QQQ 3 deviation -28.32pts-Crypto Cracks FOMC (aka da FED)-crush markets to fight inflation?-markets are hooked on the juice-declining economic indicators-soften hawkish stance SPX Expected Move —–last week — 85.74 (expected move)–next week– 149.58
It’s tough to know where to start discussing today’s market action where the equity futures reversed near 4% from the high of day to the closing low, making “this time it’s different” with broken trend and support levels on the daily chart. Beyond that, we have a large bearish sell-off after-hours in Netflix (NFLX) on earnings and a major bearish headline taking Peloton (PTON) to fresh new lows. This and more in tonight’s TheoTrade evening video update…
The recent selling in Treasury bonds should be a warning sign for stock investors. Not only is the sell-off a response to Fed policy, but it also accompanies sluggish returns historically. On a positive note, as yields stall, this is precisely the point where gold should outperform…
Join Don as he explains why many of the indices are facing full blown corrective territory. See how the recent bond selloff has caused, “The Monsters of Tech” to be off some 2.6% in today’s trading session. What else does all of the sell side activity mean for this marketplace? Tune in to tonight’s video and find out….
