[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] All Quiet on the Western Front was a semi-autobiographical novel written about World War I from the perspective of a young German soldier who dies a month before the end of the war, on the very same day his superiors report “all quiet on the Western Front.” As I think about the bulls’ perspective on today’s trading, I get a similar feeling: There’s nothing to report. Besides, how do you regard the S&P 500 rising 1.5% and the VIX dropping seven points to around 30? Volatility is calming down but the /VX term structure in backwardation still points to near-term risks in equities. How would you report on a market that is driven so wildly by changing events from day to day? Apple (AAPL) is squarely in the crosshairs one day, when the next day sees tariffs on phones being

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The markets closed up today, nearly 2%, which would be nice if this were anything like a normal market. But I’m here to tell you, these gains – 2%, 1%, 5% – don’t mean a thing. We’re going to spend some time talking about price action, sure, but that has to take a back seat to volatility. Volatility’s the name of the game. Understanding why this market’s doing what it’s doing, understanding what it is that’s actually blowing up like a hand grenade and posing risks to everyone – that’s much more important right now. Because if you’re only reading the VIX, you’re only seeing a fraction of what’s happening here. I’ll show you what you need to know and what you need to be watching to get your money through this. I’ll be straight with you: Not everyone is

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There’s a lot to talk about tonight. Earnings, for one; we’ve got some big, systemically important banks set to report starting tomorrow. And unless you’ve been hiding out up on a mountain somewhere, you know this earnings season is going to unfold against a historically volatile backdrop, with some of the biggest moves we’ve seen in years, if not decades. Double-digit drops and recoveries followed by even more volatility. If that weren’t, economists are raising the odds of recession on us. Austrians, Keynesians, and everyone in between agree that some kind of slowdown is due, if it’s not underway already. We’re going to check in on sector rotation to make up our own minds – and pick the juiciest targets. So, take a deep breath – we’ll be okay – and let’s dive in…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] “A 90-day pause” on tariffs was the secret sauce. That was all it took for majorly beaten-down stocks to go ballistic this afternoon, anywhere from 6.4% to 9.3% by 3 PM. (Don’t get comfortable – more on that in a minute.) More than 75 U.S. trading partners caught a break, but there’s one country that didn’t get to sit in on the love-fest. A certain gigantic Asian commercial superpower… was hit with even more tariffs – 125% for those of you who are still counting. That didn’t seem to faze the traders who’ve been starving for news for more than a week, but I’m here to tell you… China is actually the piece of the puzzle that matters most right now – and here’s why…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There’s no need to complicate things, no reason to sugarcoat it… It’s a rout. Stocks are in an unambiguous bear trend right now. Copper and oil are breaking down; this tape has “recession” written all over it. Overseas, Chinese firms are planning buybacks to keep their bull running, and it looks like the government there is trying to raise dollars by selling Treasuries to maintain the yuan. (Of course, we know from history that currency pegs don’t stand the test of time.) We need to quickly come to grips with the fact that we’re living through one of the most volatile quarters in modern market history. Don’t try to be a hero: This market isn’t awarding points for style, effort, or guts. Be a survivor. Zoom out, do your best to contain drawdowns, and keep a level head. What’s coming

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Today we got something that seemed like a “normal” selling day with only two sectors down more than 2%. This seems a little ridiculous in perspective, given the lack of volatility for the past couple of years, but it’s definitely an improvement at a time when the VIX hits a 60-handle. Tempting, then, to think, “Well, there’s only one way to go from here!” But before we get ahead of ourselves, bear in mind that no one has stepped in to support the market – bar some fake news about “delaying” tariffs for 90 days. That’s not to say we can’t start kicking the tires on some bullish opportunities. That strong 90% down day on Friday would normally signal an imminent relief rally, but this time it feels a little different than it did on say, August 5, 2024, or

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] China just punched back, and for stocks it was a body blow. We’re closing out an absolutely epic trading day – trading week, in fact. In the chart I’m going to show you in a second, you can see U.S. stocks plummeting right into the storm. I’m talking about the second straight day of powerful, highly correlated selling. We saw the SPX move three standard deviations, a three-sigma move, and the VIX topped 45. That’s its highest level in nearly five years – since COVID. But there’s a lot about today’s market action that was totally unique – things we’ve never seen before. For one thing, I’m looking at some heavy redemption selling – investors selling back to management, rather than out on the open market – that could bring a stiff hangover even looking out to Monday morning. A

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We knew the markets probably weren’t going to respond well to the tariffs, but the breadth and depth of them provoked a virtual instant selloff in aftermarket trading yesterday. To give you an idea of the ferocity there, NQ futures were halted at one point Wednesday evening. That spilled over into today’s regular trading; stocks just closed out their worst day since the early 2020 COVID Crash on volumes running at about 150% of normal. But whenever there’s “blood in the streets” like this, profit opportunities are there for the taking for folks who keep on an even keel. That’s what we’re going to look at tonight. I’m seeing bullish setups in sector ETFs like XLV, XLU, XLE, and XLRE. Bullish – you read that right. On the other hand, there are short-side plays in AAPL, LEN, GM, and F.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Whether you’ve been psyched for “Liberation Day”… or completely freaked out by the stiff tariffs that just came down… you need to hear what I’m going to tell you tonight. We’ve been dealing with a range bound market that’s seen some wild, but increasingly weak, reversal rallies over the past few sessions. Sure enough we opened this morning into Thunderdome… no clear direction, no place to hide, just madness. We’re getting some great two-way trade, but for people who don’t know what to look for, it’s just mayhem. But there’s a really interesting situation brewing in terms of volatility – one that’s going to scare the hell out of anyone who’s not prepared. Let me show you what’s happening…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks got squeezed out of the low yesterday, but there are still some formidable obstacles bulls need to get around to rekindle the bull market. Market breadth is starting to improve, but without the Magnificent Seven participating, bullish efforts won’t amount to much. We took a swing at Tesla (TSLA) a few weeks ago and that trade is beginning to work nicely. And I like what I’m seeing in the EV space. More than anything, we need to see tech – and the aforementioned Mag 7 – take the reins of leadership from the current boss sector, consumer staples. Overseas, the destination of choice for global capital right now, I like the price action from Chinese names. In terms of opportunities closer to home, I think there’s tremendous opportunity in precious metals. Let’s take a closer look…