[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’re getting ready to close the book on two straight sessions of (slight) declines on the indexes as the odds rise that the bulls will take a breather. And yet, overall, bullish signals keep flashing and volatility is relatively subdued, especially in comparison to where we were a few weeks ago. If a US debt downgrade and outright Japanese debt market collapse can’t meaningfully reverse this market… what can? At this rate, we may well have to wait until July 8 and the 90-day tariff “pause” expiration to see any volatility. Stocks could well be at new all-time highs by then if the trend continues to unfold. We’ll look at that tonight, among other things. In this atmosphere of strength, we’ll look at opportunities in quantum computing, crypto, and metals, too. We discussed a few promising setups in miners today,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] As we approach the close today, one might have assumed a much bigger response to Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt. We saw the S&P 500 notch a lukewarm 0.13% decline. Historically, though, the response to such downgrades has been much bigger the day of the downgrade and the coming weeks and months after. On August 5, 2011, for instance, Standard and Poor’s downgraded U.S. debt. The market’s response was immediate with a 6.59% decline the next day. The next downgrade from Fitch came on August 1, 2023 and the big index declined 1.55% the next day, 5.27% over the next week, and a full 10.33% over the next three months. In comparison, today’s 0.13% decline is downright muted. So we’ve got to ask “why?” Is it possible that the market has become so accustomed to debt and deficits that we’re

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We are closing out the week with some fireworks with markets clocking a two-sigma move to the upside, leaving the expected move in the dust. We were pricing in a 130-handle move in the SPX and got 300. That’s not a rally so much as a mispricing meltdown. It’s upside volatility. This is happening at a time when gamma squeezes are popping off all over the place – Nvidia, for one. We’re on the verge of a real frenzy in tech, like 2021 all over again. No one cares about fundamentals here. But here’s the thing. Volatility’s still higher than you’d expect given the vibe out there. That tells us risk hasn’t really gone away, it’s just hiding, pricing all out of whack. That’s why tonight going deep into the price action. We’ll look at what this upside explosion really

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] If you’ve been watching the market, particularly volatility and thinking, “Is this thing broken?” you’re not wrong. In April, Trump’s tariffs pushed the VIX top 60 during a flat-out market rout, but just a few weeks later… we’re seeing some of the lowest volatility we’ve had all year. It’s like the market’s stuck in mud. But trust me, that won’t last. We’re going to dig into exactly why this “low-vol” environment has taken shape and what it means for traders of all kinds. I’m talking to folks trading commodities, equities, futures, currencies, options – name it. And we’ll track down the “liquidity zones,” key levels, and emerging setups that’ll help us get into position for the eventual big move. So if you’ve been wondering whether to be patient… or to pounce… you won’t want to miss this…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] This market feels calm… and that should scare you. If you’ve been with us for a while, you know that a quiet tape like this often sets the stage for outsized moves, like Monday’s upside explosion. Now, we’re sitting well outside the expected move in the SPX. Probability suggests we’re due for a pullback – not a collapse, but more like a gravity-check back toward 5800. There’s more going on and we’ll dive into big index names, too. I’ll show you how retail flow triggered gamma squeezes in usual suspects like Meta (META) and Nvidia (NVDA), and how I’ve been using my catapult strategy in Alphabet (GOOGL). There are opportunities out there in this scary, rangebound tape – here’s what I’m looking at…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I can’t blame investors for being skeptical at all. After a six-week stretch like the one we just came through, with its huge swings on the big indexes, the rise and fall… and rise… of critical sectors, and chaotic, near-total uncertainty from day to day, people are feeling punch-drunk. And so when stocks exploded off the launch pad this week on favorable trade developments between the United States and China, well, it’s understandable to be leery. But I’m here to tell you you can believe it. Or, at the very least, you shouldn’t fight it. My readers were in position well ahead of Sunday’s trade news because we’re using a cyclical and sector model that pointed to the likelihood of more upside for this market. And now others can come along, too. Technology, semiconductors, and crypto are still outperforming right

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] You hear the term “pain trade” thrown around the financial media sometimes. Here’s the Cliff’s Notes definition: It’s the trade that delivers the most pain to the most investors. As the market rallies nearly 3%, it’s time for us to reckon with our pain trade. What’s going to cause the greatest amount of pain to your portfolio? Do you have an idea of market direction or a theme that would hurt your positions the most? See, it’s not hard to imagine quite a few folks out there who were overweight in bearish positions – a lot of bearish exposure – which is understandable given where the market was just 40 hours ago. But that was then, this is now. If today’s big move higher is upsetting your P/L, are you ready to reverse course and join the very crowded bullish

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Jerome Powell and the Fed gave us nothing this week – they gave nothing because they know nothing. That left markets with no catalysts; nothing to rally on, nothing to tank on, either. What that looks like is a calm market, but this market isn’t calm… …it’s coiling up. Like a trap. This stagnant S&P 500 is a trade-war Tweet away from a 200-handle move. Just what direction that move will take, well, that’s up to the trade war. Bulls and bears are a misstep away from walking into a buzzsaw. In a market like this, which I’ll show you in a second, I’m leaning hard into butterfly spreads and my special “catapult” moves. Let me show you what I mean here…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market’s flashing signs of life, and it has been for a few sessions now, but I’m not pushing all my chips in just yet.  Yes, the S&P 500 gave us a Bollinger band breakout, and sectors like industrials and financials are leading the charge. Financials, as tracked by the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) broke through resistance, hinting at early strength, while the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) cleared multi-month highs.  I’m looking at some other very bullish setups – including some big stocks – that hint at an early recovery, too.  But I can’t deny the broader picture doesn’t fully support the bullish narrative. A trade deal with China is still in science-fiction territory, and more concretely, copper is flat, gold has pulled back, and crude oil remains in bearish territory.  Let’s ignore what we’d like

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Markets feel broken and disconnected – they have for a long time now. Today just put a fine point on it. The Fed came, they saw… they did absolutely nothing. No rate cut, no real direction, just wait and see. Yet despite that, while J-Po was spinning his nothingburger, the S&P 500s floated higher with painfully thin liquidity. That’s troubling. This isn’t healthy trade; this is a marketplace skating on ambiguity. Look at Google’s drop, Nvidia’s bid, and volatility still steep in backwardation. None of that points to clarity. As far as this market’s concerned, tariffs (and China) now hold the cards. Until that uncertainty shakes out, expect sharp, violent moves on headlines. But I’m not saying this to bum you out. With the right risk protection, there are plenty of juicy targets out there. I’m focusing on out-of-the-money plays