[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There’s no need to complicate things, no reason to sugarcoat it… It’s a rout. Stocks are in an unambiguous bear trend right now. Copper and oil are breaking down; this tape has “recession” written all over it. Overseas, Chinese firms are planning buybacks to keep their bull running, and it looks like the government there is trying to raise dollars by selling Treasuries to maintain the yuan. (Of course, we know from history that currency pegs don’t stand the test of time.) We need to quickly come to grips with the fact that we’re living through one of the most volatile quarters in modern market history. Don’t try to be a hero: This market isn’t awarding points for style, effort, or guts. Be a survivor. Zoom out, do your best to contain drawdowns, and keep a level head. What’s coming

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Today we got something that seemed like a “normal” selling day with only two sectors down more than 2%. This seems a little ridiculous in perspective, given the lack of volatility for the past couple of years, but it’s definitely an improvement at a time when the VIX hits a 60-handle. Tempting, then, to think, “Well, there’s only one way to go from here!” But before we get ahead of ourselves, bear in mind that no one has stepped in to support the market – bar some fake news about “delaying” tariffs for 90 days. That’s not to say we can’t start kicking the tires on some bullish opportunities. That strong 90% down day on Friday would normally signal an imminent relief rally, but this time it feels a little different than it did on say, August 5, 2024, or

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] China just punched back, and for stocks it was a body blow. We’re closing out an absolutely epic trading day – trading week, in fact. In the chart I’m going to show you in a second, you can see U.S. stocks plummeting right into the storm. I’m talking about the second straight day of powerful, highly correlated selling. We saw the SPX move three standard deviations, a three-sigma move, and the VIX topped 45. That’s its highest level in nearly five years – since COVID. But there’s a lot about today’s market action that was totally unique – things we’ve never seen before. For one thing, I’m looking at some heavy redemption selling – investors selling back to management, rather than out on the open market – that could bring a stiff hangover even looking out to Monday morning. A

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We knew the markets probably weren’t going to respond well to the tariffs, but the breadth and depth of them provoked a virtual instant selloff in aftermarket trading yesterday. To give you an idea of the ferocity there, NQ futures were halted at one point Wednesday evening. That spilled over into today’s regular trading; stocks just closed out their worst day since the early 2020 COVID Crash on volumes running at about 150% of normal. But whenever there’s “blood in the streets” like this, profit opportunities are there for the taking for folks who keep on an even keel. That’s what we’re going to look at tonight. I’m seeing bullish setups in sector ETFs like XLV, XLU, XLE, and XLRE. Bullish – you read that right. On the other hand, there are short-side plays in AAPL, LEN, GM, and F.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Whether you’ve been psyched for “Liberation Day”… or completely freaked out by the stiff tariffs that just came down… you need to hear what I’m going to tell you tonight. We’ve been dealing with a range bound market that’s seen some wild, but increasingly weak, reversal rallies over the past few sessions. Sure enough we opened this morning into Thunderdome… no clear direction, no place to hide, just madness. We’re getting some great two-way trade, but for people who don’t know what to look for, it’s just mayhem. But there’s a really interesting situation brewing in terms of volatility – one that’s going to scare the hell out of anyone who’s not prepared. Let me show you what’s happening…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks got squeezed out of the low yesterday, but there are still some formidable obstacles bulls need to get around to rekindle the bull market. Market breadth is starting to improve, but without the Magnificent Seven participating, bullish efforts won’t amount to much. We took a swing at Tesla (TSLA) a few weeks ago and that trade is beginning to work nicely. And I like what I’m seeing in the EV space. More than anything, we need to see tech – and the aforementioned Mag 7 – take the reins of leadership from the current boss sector, consumer staples. Overseas, the destination of choice for global capital right now, I like the price action from Chinese names. In terms of opportunities closer to home, I think there’s tremendous opportunity in precious metals. Let’s take a closer look…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 just experienced a 2% rally after a risk-off day, with the VIX nearly hitting 25 before reversing. However, gold’s performance, with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) up 1.4%, outshone most S&P sectors, signaling underlying market unease. Gold’s outperformance suggests a shift away from inflationary assets, as demand for physical gold rises amid supply constraints. The delisting of gold futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) struggle to deliver physical gold highlights a growing distrust in financialized systems reliant on debt and monetary inflation. This trend exposes the fragility of over-financialized markets, where unprofitable companies survive on cheap capital and inflated valuations, eroding real value. Gold’s rise reflects a flight to assets that preserve purchasing power (as opposed to generating returns), which challenges the nominal gains of the S&P 500. You

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player]   Volatility is in backwardation… That’s not a horoscope or a fortune cookie, it’s real and it’s happening right now. We’re staring down the barrel of an intense, though possibly short, wave of volatility here. But this is a great market for trading. Earlier this week, while the markets were trading more or less flat, I put an SPX butterfly trade out for my “3TW” subscribers. It was a low-risk, but low-probability trade – put up 45 cents for a shot at a big windfall just in case SPX falls into the butterfly we set up. Earlier this afternoon we closed that out for a two-day, 500% win. That says a lot about how this market’s behaving right now. (You better believe I have more to say about it – hang on.) Judging by the bond market and the heavy

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In any Economics 101 classroom, they’ll tell you a standard business cycle in the US economy takes around four years to play out, from weakness to strength to weakness. Right now, although hard data and even anecdotal evidence (based on my quick TheoChat room survey yesterday) are mixed, with strength and growth in some places and weakness in others, it’s becoming clear we’ve probably crested the hill and are moving toward the end of the cycle. That has implications for, well, everything… but it has to inform how and where we’re investing for the long-term and trading over the short-term. Yesterday in the TheoChat room, we talked about how copper, of all things, has a weird tendency to move higher even after we see weakness and contraction in the economy and equities soften up. Tonight we’re going to talk some

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 is down around 1.3% and volatility is up – nearly 9% for the day, in fact. THE CHOP is back, baby! Big-time. And we’re perfectly positioned for it, too. The sell-side activity we’ve seen today came from bigger fish out there, which is one reason why the Nasdaq isn’t doing anywhere near as “well” as the S&P 500 today. It’s bled out more than 2%. Take Nvidia; it’s down more than 5% for the day. Tesla, which has been on the quintessential rip-your-face-off ride for the past few days, is also down more than 5%. The sellers came for these right out of the gate this morning and didn’t stop. Meta, Google – I could go on. What happened when these names got caught up is a domino effect; it started to tip other major sectors. Financials