[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Last week I warned everyone that volatility was going to go on a rampage. And that’s exactly what it did. And here’s the thing: It’s not over, not by a long shot. The rally sputtered and nearly died today. By the close it had made up some ground to end up… “massively unchanged.” But in the larger context of the week, it’s anything but. The expected move for the week was 96 – could be 96 up or 96 down. It’s only Wednesday, and we’re already at the upper edge. That alone is evidence the beast is still out there and it’s hungry. There’s more. One of volatility’s hallmarks is a violent up-move. That’s just what we’ve seen. Let me explain what’s going on here – and why it could be pretty painful for the unprepared…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We were excited for last week’s lows, and for a good reason. I told everyone to wrestle with the bear and get in the market and go shopping. We’re off those levels now, and I still think taking advantage of the selloff was the right call. I’m seeing some encouraging signs bubbling underneath the rally we’ve seen over the last two sessions. Tech and chip stocks are leading the move higher. (Though I still think the setups are better in energy right now – more on that in a minute.) Beyond equities, things look even more exciting, particularly the carry trade in the Japanese yen. The market wants Japan’s central bankers to end their negative interest-rate policy, and there are rumblings, but traders are calling their bluff. I think there are great opportunities there. Bitcoin and crypto are behaving nicely,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks rallied back strongly today after shaving off more than 1% last week, but the buying fizzled heading into the close. It was gold, which until recently had been rock-solid, that took the biggest hit as traders took profits. But the question on every trader’s mind right now has to be: “Can we trust it?” With earnings coming up fast, that question takes on even more urgency. Visa, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla are reporting this week, and we could see volatility rebound dramatically. Here’s what I see…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Last week, I went out and said the market was on the “edge of the abyss” of volatility. Plenty of people probably thought I was freaking out – after all, plenty of tech stocks were hitting highs. But I said at the time that tech had taken no damage. I said tech needs to take a big hit before volatility can come out and start collecting heads. Well, that’s what happened this week: damage. We’re starting to see damage to leaders like Nvidia. Meta and Amazon are starting to get dinged, too. (Forget about Netflix – it doesn’t have the market cap to move entire indexes.) And by damage, I mean NVDA alone is down 10-freakin’-percent for the day. If that’s not damage I don’t know what is. With all that said, I’m not necessarily a bear – I’m just

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Texas-based D.R. Horton is the biggest homebuilder in the United States. They just turned in a stellar earnings report. Revenue is up by $1 billion, guidance suggests even better performance ahead, and all of this in a historically tight American housing market. The market… doesn’t care. The stock experienced a classic “sell the news” dip today. But I think as traders we need to care – this is a massive player in a bellwether sector. So we’ll look at what happened, and dive even deeper into the key ratios of some other major homebuilders. Time to sort the weak from the strong ahead of upcoming earnings. Let’s get to it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market is volatile right now, no doubt, but it could turn into an absolute mess over the next couple of trading sessions. What’s the difference between “volatile” and a “mess?” Well… The activity we’re seeing right now is disconnected, jumbled – too fast. Every little data point, every offhand comment from a Fedhead, every announcement is being traded. We’re not just seeing small moves here, either; we’re seeing 20- and 30-handle moves in very short timeframes. It all comes down to what we’ll see tomorrow and Friday. As usual, the tech sector is going to play a key role in all this. Here’s how…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’re seeing mounting signs that a “low of significance” is imminent in the stock market – we’re at a critical juncture, and I’ve got the charts to prove it. We’ll look at those in a moment. I really want you to see these. There’s a really great opportunity coming to put on long positions at can’t-miss risk/reward ratios. The cycle is lining up with the technicals and big profits are going to go to traders with the guts to move. Tech names and semiconductors, for instance, have shown unusual strength for this point in the cycle. I’ll show you more in a minute, but I think these could lead a rally in the near future. So let’s take a look at the charts to identify these opportunities and think about which sector will emerge as the new leader as this

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] A lot of rookie traders would give their left arm to be able to correctly spot and call a bottom in stocks, the better to get in position to reap maximum upside on the run back up. “Have we seen the bottom?” That’s a question on a lot of minds right now as we’re finally seeing some sell-side activity! In my experience, this is a productive thing; the market is at last sweating out the excesses of the past many months. So what we’ll talk about today is confidently establishing whether a bottom is playing out. Once we make that determination, it’s that much easier to get back on the horse and find some juicy opportunities in all the selling. Here are five surefire indicators that’ll give you the confidence to buy when everyone else is selling…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Hope you enjoyed all the soapy froth, blowout earnings, and all-time highs we’ve seen over the past few months… …’cos it’s very close to being over with. The Warm, Fuzzy LoveFest of 2024 is hanging by a thread. This market, beneath the surface, has been a powder keg for the past three weeks or so. It’s looking for a reason to blow – geopolitical risk coming out of the Middle East is just the catalyst, not the “why.” We’re close, folks. If the clusterf%^$* breaks open, we’re going to see damage inflicted all over the place. Tech, which has been unscathed lately, will start to sell off. As I’ll show you in a second, you want to pay close attention to the VVIX – the volatility of volatility. You’re going to want to keep a close eye on the greenback,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Despite offering some of the highest yields in recent memory, Uncle Sam is having a tougher and tougher time selling bonds right now. Demand at yesterday’s 10-year auction was abysmal, which tells me there’s not much appetite for that particular flavor of Treasury debt. Today’s 30-year Treasury auction was… “average” if you’re being charitable – or you believe what you see in the mainstream financial media. I’d call it a miss, though. The bid-to-cover (the amount of bonds offered for sale divided by the total dollar amount of bids) was weak at 2.37, and lower than the last 30-year auction. We can talk about the implications of a government beginning to struggle to secure creditors despite high yields – but that’s a whole ‘nother can of worms. Either way, in the here and now, investors are clearly not feeling great