[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we look at equity and commodity responses to the Fed Policy Pivot. We compare the wild swings in equities to the sustained lift in commodities as a sign of a return of cheap money and rising inflation.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Jerome Powell’s words fuel a market rally! In this evening’s video, Don Kaufman explains the latest actions taken by the FOMC and the widespread market surge triggered by Jerome Powell’s reinforced dovish stance on Federal Reserve policy.

[video_player type=”youtube” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9UcEVXY0c0UkhjST9zaT1xTWRzb2c5T3ozMzlESWNG[/video_player] Stocks are seeing positive signs such as semiconductors breaking out to new multi-year highs. But with Fed Chair Powell set to speak tomorrow after the Fed announcement, could bulls be walking into a trap?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] As the S&P 500 pushes to another new 52-week high, is the FOMC announcement setting up for the next pain trade. The “pain trade” when a widely-followed strategy or industry makes a sudden turn against expectations. An example, was the short U.S. Treasury rally. It was a “pain trade” for bond bears. If you think another pain trade is in the offing, say AI. ($HOOD, $C, $PENN, $INTC, $NXPI, $CENX, $CZR, XOM, SBUX)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -Low VIX but high volatility? -isn’t good jobs bad ? -Risky Business and the FED -Triple witching and the /ES roll -Dollar and bonds have reversed -C, GOOGL, LULU SPX Expected Move – -last week – 57.36 (5-day expected move) -next week – 64.66 (5-day expected move)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we look at the 3 main drivers or correlations to the NASDAQ. We discuss the U.S. dollar, borrowing rates and AI’s influence on the movement of tech stocks. We also look for the strong stocks that should remain strong if rates continue lower and the weak stocks that should sell off if rates move higher.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Market Volatility and Santa Claus Rally: There’s emerging volatility in the stock market, raising questions about whether the typical Santa Claus rally will happen. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are experiencing fluctuations, but these are within the expected daily move, suggesting the markets haven’t reached an extreme volatility state. Analysis of Tech Stocks and NASDAQ: Tech stocks, referred to as the “Magnificent 7” (including companies like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia), are largely hovering around the lower edge of their expected move. This indicates a potential market downturn, as these stocks are pivotal in the overall market performance. Economic Indicators: The dollar’s strengthening trend and the recessionary signals from the dropping oil prices are highlighted as concerns. The bond market rally and decreasing interest rates are also seen as indicators of a potential recession. Financial Sector’s Response:

[video_player type=”youtube” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS94MDNSd2dONTdIYz9zaT1wbEpIQzZSVGZic1k5Szli[/video_player] Despite the rebound in the U.S. Dollar, stocks have held their recent gains well, and we continue to see leadership from key sectors like technology. The bond market seems to be pricing in more disinflation, especially as crude oil falls to new multi-month lows.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market has been ripping higher as the gamma and short squeeze plays out. Here’s a look at today’s “double dip” strategy of unusual option activity and short interest. However, with Tech lagging, how much juice is left to squeeze? ($HOOD, $FXI, $CVNA, $COIN, $SOFI, $ARKK, $IYR, $XRT, $AX, $BBWI, $RDFN, $CGC).

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] – Mag 7 leadership role diminished this week – Financials continue to hold SP500 together – FED Fund Futures are ludicrous – positioning in a one-sided market (JPM, BA, IBM) – heavy skew, huge volatility contango – markets don’t trust the future? SPX Expected Move – -last week – 46.29 (5-day expected move) -next week – 57.36 (5-day expected move)