Softer Data and a Stronger Market?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] – Don Kaufman of TheoTrade discusses market conditions on November 15, 2023, noting the S&P 500’s mild uptrend despite mixed economic data, with retail sales softer and Producer Price Index (PPI) in line with expectations. – Kaufman highlights unusual activity in the bond market, with high trading volume and a significant pullback from previous gains. He expresses concern over this volatility and its potential impact on banks, particularly those with substantial unrealized bond losses. – The discussion includes an analysis of the Regional Bank ETF (KR) and individual stocks like Charles Schwab, noting unexpected stock increases despite the bond market’s downturn and potential unrealized losses. – Kaufman points out the market’s paradoxical reaction to weaker economic data (like retail sales and CPI), leading to rallies. He also notes the market’s indifference to fundamentals in the short term and the peculiar

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CPI Sends Tech Stocks, Retail Banks, the Russell, and Bonds Flying – Your Evening Play

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In last week’s video I highlighted the rally reversal in bonds and tech stocks and one week later, we see that same play continuing – and extending – to new 52 week highs in market-cap leading tech stocks including MSFT, META, AMZN and others. In tonight’s video, we pinpoint the CPI inflation data and how it helped extend the fall in TNX (10 Year Treasury Note Yields), while boosting tech, regional banks (KRE), the Russell 2000 (IWM), and bonds (TLT and others) much higher.

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Massively Unch’d as Debt, Spending and Inflation Reports Loom

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] What a day of indecision! Equities and bonds finished unchanged for the day as data looms regarding a shutdown, inflation and Moody’s negative outlook for U.S. debt. One thing appears certain, we’re starting the week this way, but likely won’t finish it this way. (ARKK, KHC, EQT, XLK, KRE, KEY).

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Magnificent Market Moves or a High-Stakes Gamble?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] –correlation kicks in and markets fly –pay attention to NASDAQ Expected Moves! –Fed speaks markets do not listen –Bond markets / auctions matter –Big economic data week (CPI report) SPX Expected Move — –last week —  62.04  (expected move) –next week–  63.82 (expected move)

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Market Freaked Out by Fed

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we look at the 30 year bond auction and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement. We discuss the worst performance in the 30 year bond auction in years and we review the Fed’s tacit admission of failure to get inflation under control.

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Markets too Quiet for Comfort?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Join Don in tonight’s video as he answers the question, Are the Markets too Quiet for Comfort? Things remained relatively unchanged throughout today’s trading session, however, we did see a pull back within the energy sector. It shows that oil trade is less about geopolitical risk and more about the possibility of an economic slowdown. Don also takes a close look at where we are on the expected moves for the week….

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Bonds Bounce Back, Pulling Tech With Them

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We continue to see the ongoing strong bounce in bond prices higher from support as the 10 year Treasury Note Yield reversed for the moment down from the all-important 5% level. This sent tech stocks surging again with some trading up just shy of fresh new 52-week highs as the “Monsters of Tech” roared back. In tonight’s video, we highlight these new developments and which stocks are joining them at new highs (and lows).

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Is NVDA Key to Next Leg of Market Rally?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Today looked like a typical rotation to defensive sectors like Staples, Healthcare and Utilities. However, are these the drivers for the current market rally? Looking beneath the surface shows NVDA at the center of the next move in the market. (IYR, ARKK, SOXL, LEN, PYPL, XLE).

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Can the Fed Induced Upside Insanity Sustain Markets?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] –FED speaks and markets rip –bid under bonds –Volatility check –disregard AAPL ? SPX Expected Move — –last week —  96.77  (expected move) –next week–  80.43   (expected move)

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Markets on Fire with Extreme Moves!

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Markets exploded to the upside off the FED comments but traders are questioning the validity of the move. Are we headed higher or is this the quintessential rip your face off rally? Don will explore quantitatively how markets have exploded higher and what products you need to pay attention to for the rally to continue.

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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