Bears Negotiating a Truce as Tech Option Activity Heats Up

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We finally get a pull-back and the bears appear to be losing some momentum. Energy and Real Estate topped today’s performance, but it’s big cap technology that appears to have bullish option activity building beneath the surface. (QCOM, AMD, INTC, OXY, JNJ, GIS, AMZN)

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Market Unwind? From Rally to Recession

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] – The other-side of the gamma squeeze – Where is the volatility? – Are we really selling-off? Not TECH! – Inverted skews – Commodities sell-off, bonds rally – Position update SPX Expected Move – – Last week – 50.91 (Expected move 4 day week) – Next week – 54.73 (Expected move 5 day week)

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Is the Fed Afraid of Destroying Equities?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video, we discuss why the recent pause from the Federal Reserve rate hikes while the rest of the world is raising rates. We discuss the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia and others increasing rates with surprise hikes desperate to fight inflation. In addition, we discuss the direct correlation with Fed liquidity and U.S. equities and review consumer discretionary as an indicator for the overall health of the economy.

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Is it Time to Sell?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Markets feel chaotic, broken, and disconnected from all semblance of technicals and fundamentals as orderflow has shifted into the shortest duration possible. Don Kaufman explores what to look for when REAL sellers do arrive and details specific levels in the SPX that are critical make or break for markets in the days to come!

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Planning our Quiet Week Ahead While Guarding for Surprises

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’re just past the middle of June and – so far – it’s a quiet week in the market with expected news and earnings. That could of course change but until then, we make note of FedEx (FDX) falling after-hours in earnings, Chair Powell this week on any surprises from the Federal Reserve, and we view some interesting, unexpected stocks making new 52 week highs and remaining strong through heavy headwinds in 2023.

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The Extremes of Markets Stress Test the Shorts!

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -Gamma squeeze + short squeeze -Moves higher are not what they appear -FED, ECB more hikes ahead -CPI, PPI, Jobless claims -SPX EM upside shattered -Pposition updates SPX Expected Move -Last Week – 65.29 (expected move 5 day week) -Next Week – 50.91 (expected move 4 day week)

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EU Rate Hike, Good for US Stocks?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we look at the European Union Rate Hike and compare the differential between the U.S. and European Central Bank short term rates. In addition, we identify the direct correlation between dollar weakness and U.S. equity strength and estimate the next move in both the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities.

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Are More Rate Hikes Bullish?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Fed pauses as expected, but then surprises the market with their expectation of 2 more rate hikes by the end of the year. They also increased their GDP estimate and lowered their unemployment expectation. Good economic news should be bullish, right? Here is the key level to watch for the remainder of the week…

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Inflation Cools and Stocks Rally: Your Guide to this Week’s Fed Day and Beyond

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We had cooler inflation data in this morning’s CPI report, setting the stage for a pause or “no change!” in the Fed Funds Rate at tomorrow’s meeting. But what will Powell say about the future of inflation and whether there will be a rate hike in July? That’ll set the stage for the next month and beyond – get your key updates and trending stock scan in tonight’s Theo video.

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Retail Rampage in Tech Lifts S&P Above Pivotal 4300 Ahead of Fed and Inflation

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Retail traders are back after a hiatus and they’re just in time to bid the markets higher ahead of key inflation data and the FOMC policy statement. Sure it’s risky, but time will tell if it pays off or if it’s a replay of the 2022’s version of the strong and the weak. Fact is, markets should be primed for some profit taking, the only question is how frenzied can things get (INTC, AMD, SOXL, ORCL, KR, XLI, CCJ, ZM).

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