What to Expect in AAPLs Earnings

It's earnings season and we kick off with the grand daddy of them all - AAPL! Many think that around earnings you should only sell premium. That is plain old stupid advice given by those that don't know any better. Let me tell you right now that trading earnings is not a bathrobe. One size…

Theoretical vs Historical Probabilities

Earnings season has kicked into high gear. How do you know whether or not to sell premium on high implied volatility stocks going into the earnings announcement? The trading technology out there focuses only on theoretical probabilities. However, what if you looked the actual historical probabilities based on historical data? Would theory match reality? TheoTrade…

Matching Strategy to the Market Character

There are two types of market that we have seen over the last several years. They have been either quiet and trending or sideways and volatile. It seems to me that markets may have broken out in another quiet and trending market. With volatility we like to use a combination of calendar spreads and directional…

Brazilian Contrarian Spread

It's not a rally, it's just a slow grind to the upside on very light volume. One interesting stat that came out today that the last 3 weeks saw the fastest collapse in the VIX in its history. There are plenty of contrarian candidates out there to choose from. Tonight let's set up a trade…

What's Next for Stocks?

Stocks have paused after making new highs. Is the market preparing for the next move to the upside or is it stalling at new highs? Let's find out what we think has the greatest possibility of happening next...

Earnings Announcements in Full Swing

Welcome to the crapshoot game of the earnings season. Many don't know that if you look at 1000s of earnings trades and try to sell premium the return is a whopping zero! However, if you place trades before earnings on the side of the trend this gives you a slight edge. Here's a few examples…

Premium Sellers Should Fear the Low Volatility

TheoTraders must be aware of when to be a buyer or a seller of option premium. In this weekend edition let's take a look at how you can do that. At TheoTrade we have done the hard work for you. Not only do we have the answer, but analysis behind that so you understand. Here…

Froth in the Markets and the Pepsi Challenge

Markets have surged 170 points since Brexit to new all time highs. Here is one scan I use to find contrarian set ups. One of the stocks this scan came up with was PEP. Let's review the trade and what to expect with earnings coming up.

Stocks Take An Awkward Pause

In the past few days stocks made new all time highs and today's awkward pause comes right before earnings season starts. TheoTraders must stay aware of the macro economic picture of the global economy. Tonight I want to highlight one of our TheoDark reports that showcase a major opportunity in Japan that we will be…

Shopping for Value at the Helipad

We take a look into the last 100 years of the S&P 500.