[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Seven mega-cap stocks continue to keep the market in a tight range despite the banking crisis, inflation, and higher interest rates. It’s still remains to be seen if the move higher today is the start of a breakout higher or a fake out. A review of the expected move for the week tells us even if we went to the higher end of the expected move we’d still be in the range. We may not see a definitive answer until next week. In the meantime here’s what I’m looking for…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Today’s session continued the ongoing theme of “strong technology, weak financials” (and almost all other sector ETFs today). In tonight’s Theo Video Update, we pinpoint the strongest two sectors, weakest sectors, and the others floating in-between strength and weakness so far in 2023 and how that’s affecting our swing trading decisions, but also the broader market which continues the ongoing split.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Debt ceiling discussions are heating up as the X-date looms. As usual, all of the rhetoric is getting pretty thick as “default” looms large. How does this impact money market funds? Also, as the market meanders, are we setting up for another short squeeze. (KWEB, BABA, HAS, FUBO, UXIN, UPST, REAL, ERO, IE)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -6 weeks same range! -Single stock risk and the SP500 -how much longer can tech hold markets together -bull/bear case for US Treasury default -SKEW, VVIX risk builds Get your trade on -This week’s Profits and Losses -covered /ES short calls 50% gain -closed BABA for a 30% gain, WMT exp SPX Expected Move– -last week – 68.84 (expected move 5 day week) -next week – 63.85 (expected move 5 day week)  

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We had additional data that inflation is cooling – that’s generally good – but the market still refuses to move meaningfully away from this 4200 level in the SP500. In tonight’s video, we highlight the increasing split between key financial stocks and certain tech stocks and note why they’re moving in different directions and what that means for the market as we stay rangebound for the moment, but that could change very quickly. Be prepared!

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In my 25 year career I can not recall a time when we have to watch so few stocks that are going to move the market. The monsters of tech are the only stocks holding the market up and it looks like the mother of the monsters of tech, AAPL, is poised to continue to go higher. The S&P continues to stay range bound. Now is the time to keep powder dry and wait for the big move to happen. The S&P will explode either higher or lower and you best be ready when it does.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we discussed market reactions to rising CPI We compared inflation data between the U.S. and the Eurozone and the impact to the U.S. dollar index. We also estimated the equity pullback we might expect if the U.S. dollar rises.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] With CPI data being released on Wednesday and the Biden administration starting talks with Congress on Tuesday, it looks like this could be a big week for volatility. Looking at volatility gauges, it appears that traders are pricing in that potential as well. (DE, SMG, RIO, GEO, NFLX, AMD, FUBO, USB).

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -range that defines everything -if not for Tech we’d be.. -vix crushed but SKEW it -when the range breaks we get nasty Get your trade on – This week’s Profits and Losses -opened Catapults in META vs /ES short puts -big tech shorts! META, NVDA, MSFT -short puts and feeling the fear! SPX Expected Move– -last week – 72.20 (expected move 5 day week) -next week – 68.84 (expected move 5 day week)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Despite Chairman Powell attesting to the strength of the banking system, regional banks were back in the spotlight as the sell-off resumed following yesterday’s close. The bearish tenor from yesterday extended in today’s trading session as bearish options activity continued to escalate. Is the move over and is the market beginning to price in a rate cut? (KRE, USB, KEY, BAC, CMA, KEY, DEN, MRO, GDX)