Banking Crisis, Inflation, Rate Hikes, and a Rally?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] —30 billion fixes what? FRC and bank debacle —Fed Watch – rate hike or rate cut? —what volatility says about markets —bonds & bitcoin —why are energy stocks and oil tanking? —the divergence, Nasdaq vs Financials and Energy Get your trade on– This week’s Profits and Losses — Catapult- CAT out for a $6 gain! –SBUX ITM, IWM ITM, VIX ITM –Covered a short 4550 call in the /ES –MSFT in/out spread SPX Expected Move– –last week– 115.34  (expected move 5 day week) –next week– 120.30  (expected move 5 day week)

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Slower Hikes Means Faster Rally?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we discussed the expected slowdown of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. We looked at the change in rate hikes and possible cuts being priced in by the summertime.

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The Fear in the Financials Returns

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The energy sector joins the financial sector in taking it on the chin today. Now the energy sector seems to be pricing in a major recession around the corner. Fund managers continue to move money into blue chip tech stocks. With a major ECB announcement tomorrow and still a 115 point move in the weekly SPX expected move the market is poised to explode in either direction. Here’s what to look for the rest of the week…

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Bank Crisis Steals The Stage From CPI

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ve seen two extremely high volatility trading session so far this week – but will the rest of the week be the same? In tonight’s video, we cover the regional bank and larger bank stocks, where Bonds and Gold have moved, and the surprising sell-off in Crude Oil. Finally we pinpoint the weakest stocks making new lows and one surprising stock breaking out to new highs.

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Bank Rout Sends Feds Scrambling as Investors Panic

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] A lot has changed over the past week as repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate policy last Tuesday had the options market betting on red for regional banks. Now that SVIB and SBNY have folded, do the Feds have what it takes to blow the next bubble or is more downside expected? Today’s option trade is looking for big moves in the coming days. (KRE, HBAN, AIG, GLD, GDX, BITO, TLT, VXX, XLE, QQQ)

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Ghosts of 2008 Return to Markets?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] — One Bad Bank??  SIVB — regional banks PNC, CBNK, CUBI, MCB, PACW, SBNY — immediate resolution or panic at the disco? — Russell crushed, Bonds explode, and Vol inverts — Oh my CPI ! Get your trade on– This week’s Profits and Losses — Catapults- bearish spreads hitting their stride ! — in/out spread JPM — 60% gain — NVDA in/out spread — covered short calls and puts SPY, QQQ, /ES, and /MES — sold premium /ES, SPY, /MES SPX Expected Move– –last week– 78.20  (expected move 5 day week) –next week–          (expected move 5 day week)

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Are Financials the Canary in the Coal Mine?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In yesterday’s video I said if the market was going to make another leg lower it would happen on the back of financials. Financials delivered that leg lower today as the market screamed systematic risk. The financial sector is on the verge of going to the 2020 crash levels just as inflation continues to rage and the Fed has no choice but to continue raising rate. We have a crucial unemployment number coming out in the morning followed by CPI and PPI next week. Here are the key levels to watch to make sure you have your risk in check…

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Risk Builds as Markets Become Completely Data Dependent!

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It seems like the year for the stock market hinges on the next 9 trading days. The theme of the last 2 days of Fed Chair Powell testimony is “data depended” and there’s no shortage of crucial data over the next week. The market could go extreme in either direction based on any one of these data points. Here’s how to keep your risk in check…

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As the Odds of a 25bps Rate Hike Fall, so Falls the Market: Your Sell-side Update

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Chair Powell spoke this morning and his statement suggested the Fed is willing to be more aggressive to keep inflation in check, and his statement sent bearish shockwaves through the equity market. In tonight’s video, we pinpoint where the sell-side activity was most aggressive, how bonds and oil fared, and what sector we’re closely watching going forward after today’s surprise shift.

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Powell Prep Takes the Charge out of the Bulls?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we looked at historic rate hikes and Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and the impact on equities. We looked at the more direct impact on companies that depend on borrowing either for costumers to buy the product or for company growth. We addressed the inverse correlation between interest rates and home builders and tech companies.

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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