Bond ETFs Give Big Heads Up of Downside Potential
Bond ETF Unusual Option Activity Report As market makers were deliberating what price to open DoorDash Inc (NYSE: DASH) this morning, the bond market was giving a much different signal. Bond ETFs were seeing significant bearish option interest across corporate and U.S. Treasuries. The exuberance for IPOs has been nothing short of historic and the…
Do You Remember Yahoo?
No One Can Believe This This market is unlike anything many have ever seen. Only people who invested from 1998 to 2000 have experienced anything similar. It’s like the 2018-19 marijuana bubble except it’s a much larger portion of the market. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 was up 34 basis points; it’s on an 11…
Markets Don’t Care About December Weakness
Is The Economy Weakening? Everyone would normally want to know if the economy was weakening and by how much. However, traders have moved on to the post-COVID-19 economy. Frankly, we thought they would move on a few months earlier. This market has become very short term oriented which sort of makes it surprising that it…
You’re Grounded! Option Bears Turn on Airlines
Airline Unusual Option Activity Report There’s nothing worse than having your airline flight cancelled during the holidays. You’re at the terminal and ready to board amidst falling snow, and then the call comes…flight cancelled. There are many movies that start out that way as stranded passengers scramble to find their way home. Luckily for you,…
Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) Finds Bullish Option Interest Revival
XOP Unusual Option Activity Oil prices traded flat on Tuesday, but oil stocks and ETFs like XOP found a bid right after the open. As the price began to rally, so did the option interest and stock volume. This is an indication that the bullish movement in the energy industry may not be over as…
Mega Nasdaq Bubble
Sell This Rally In Tech If you own any tech stocks with a greater than 30 PE ratio or any of the speculative EV, SaaS, or online retail stocks, you must sell them now. This is a rare moment where speculation exceeds basically every other market in history. The CNN fear and greed index is…
This Is Who Sees A Cyclical Recovery
Labor Force Participation Rate Falls Even though the unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 6.7%, this wasn’t a good report because the labor force participation rate fell from 61.7% to 61.5% which is a big decline. It’s down 1.9% from before the recession. Because of demographics, it might never regain all its losses, but it should…
NDAA News Gives Bullish Fuel to Uranium Stocks Like CCJ
Every Friday on TheoTrade I go over top-down trends in the stock market and on November 27 one of those areas was uranium stocks like Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ). At the time, this was following the broader rally in materials stocks. However, last Wednesday I posted some of the unusual option activity on our site…
Stocks Love The Weak Jobs Report
Euphoria Keeps Going Especially In Small Caps Small caps and cyclicals were riding high heading into the jobs report. Many were looking for a pullback once the weak jobs report came out. Instead small caps and value stocks rose even further. The short sellers must be at a loss if there are any left. They…
Labor Market Shows Signs Of Weakness
Disappointing Jobs Report Recent labor report disappointed estimates, but come out ahead of the ADP reading. The ADP report showed 307,000 private jobs added. The BLS report showed 344,000 private sector jobs added. That missed the consensus of 590,000 jobs and the lowest estimate which was 400,000. ADP finally got this one right after being…
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