Highest Retail Sales Growth Since 2011
Very Strong Retail Sales September retail sales report was so strong, it surprised many. It seems like the labor market started to slow in October compared to September, but this was a good report. Consumers were helped by the delayed extra benefits that they got in September. Many states gave out $300 per week. Since…
Euphoria In Nio Cannot Be Tamed
Small Cap Rally Stocks sold off to start the day, but recovered most of their losses by the end of the day on Thursday. Small caps beat large cap tech which is surprising because COVID-19 is getting worse and the stimulus is up in the air. Investors heavily invested in small banks even though rates…
Economy Takes A Dive
Bad Jobless Claims Report Last week’s jobless claims report was bad. This one was worse. The trend is unsettling. Don’t look at the declines in continued claims because there are people moving off traditional benefits to pandemic and extended benefits. Labor market has stopped improving in the past few weeks. We will likely see much…
Rare Treat - Energy Beats Cloud Stocks
2 Day Losing Streak Right after we mentioned there was a lot of optimism in markets, we had a 2 day losing streak as the S&P 500 fell 66 basis points on Wednesday. This decline was uniform unlike on Tuesday when small cap value led the decline and large cap tech rallied excluding Apple. On…
Q3 Earnings Season Is Underway
Earnings Season Is Here Earnings season has started, and we're looking for large beats and an increase in firms giving 2021 guidance. As of Q2 last year, there were 147 firms giving next year guidance. Obviously, that guidance was hogwash because an unexpected pandemic occurred. As of Q2 this year, 138 firms gave 2021 guidance. …
Stocks Barely Fall Despite Negative News On COVID-19 and Stimulus
Four Negative Catalysts The stock market dealt with 4 negative catalysts on Tuesday. It's actually surprising that it didn’t fall more. Even with small cap value stocks underperforming, they did well considering the news. Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine testing and Eli Lilly’s therapeutics testing were both paused. Those are normal events, but the stock market…
Consumer Spending Growth Weakens
Another Improvement In Small Business Confidence Small business confidence in the NFIB report rose from 100.2 to 104 which beat estimates for 100.9 and the highest estimate which was 102. We’ve basically recovered all the losses from the recession as the top chart shows. Every indicator except one increased in the September reading. Expected credit…
Optimism Brings Market Near Its Record High
Unbelievable Optimism The stock market is back to experiencing optimism as it is closing in on its record high. Monday was led by the big tech stocks, but small cap value also increased. It was a party where stocks like Apple got the craziest, but stocks like Mondelez also attended. It’s tough to explain the…
Small Businesses Can’t Pay Rent
Small Businesses Are In Big Trouble Apparently, the stock market is fine with a stimulus being delayed until 2021. And it doesn’t matter to the market as long as the uncertainty over whether it will pass is gone. It’s a coin flip where the market wins no matter which way the election lands. Goldman is…
Repeat Option Activity was ‘Order of the Day’ Monday
Unusual Option Activity Report The option activity wasn’t as unusual as it seemed multiple stocks experience repeat activity on Monday. That means that there has been more than one day or unusual trade that occurred over that period. Seeing multiple days of unusual activity or multiple trades can show even more conviction from traders. I…
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