Stocks Rally On Trade Negotiations Which Are “At A Different Level”
Stocks Rally Again On Trade Talks It seems like we are going around in circles with this trade situation. New tariffs tend to lead to new negotiations on trade. It’s a tap dance. This isn’t a no holds barred trade war where each side wants to destroy the other. Instead each side is issuing tariffs…
Consumption Growth Explodes to 4.7% in Q2
First Q2 GDP Revision The Q2 GDP revision was very interesting even though headline growth barely changed. Specifically, real quarter over quarter growth fell from 2.1% to 2% which met estimates. Real consumer spending growth, which was already very strong, was revised even higher. It went from 4.3% to 4.7% which beat estimates 4.3%. Core…
30 Year Yield - Biggest Decline Since Late 2011
Choppy Trading Action Continues The stock market rallied modestly on Wednesday as the choppy trading action continued. The S&P 500 was up 0.65%, the Nasdaq was up 0.38%, and the Russell 2000 was up 1.15%. The VIX was down 0.96 to 19.35 which still shows the market is in a correction. The CNN fear and…
Copper Futures Market Facing Extreme Negativity
Surprisingly Solid ISM PMI Likely Coming Based on the solid regional Fed manufacturing reports, the ISM manufacturing PMI will probably show modest sequential improvement. I expect the PMI to be from 51 to 53. The July reading was 51.2. August ISM PMI comes out on Tuesday. The chart below shows the improvement in the average…
Higher Yield for S&P 500 Than 30 Year Treasury (First Time In A Decade)
30 Year Yield Falls Below S&P 500 Dividend Yield The stock market had a modest decline and treasury yields fell sharply on Tuesday. Even though August has been a volatile month, the total decline in stocks is nothing compared to the decline in yields. The best evidence of this is that the recent low of…
Big Tariffs Set To Go Into Effect This Fall
Below Trend Growth, No Recession Bears loved the July Chicago Fed National Activity index because it was negative for the 7th time in the past 8 months. It would have been 8 out of 8 if it wasn’t for the 5 basis point positive revision to the June reading. However, even with all this negativity, the…
Stocks Stuck In An Endless Loop Because Of The Trade War
Stocks Rally On Monday On Monday, the S&P 500 avoided making a new correction low as it increased 1.1%. Action has been extremely choppy in the past couple weeks as you can see from the chart below. The market has matched the rhetoric from President Trump and China on the trade war. It’s an endless…
Core Durable Goods Orders Weak - Potentially Solid ISM PMI Coming
Solid Headline Durable Goods Orders Growth The July durable goods orders report is an example of headline data not matching the details of the report. New orders growth was 2.1% monthly which beat estimates for 1.2% growth. That’s great even though the June reading was revised slightly lower from 2% to 1.8%. Yearly growth was…
Escalated Trade War Sends Stocks Down. How Bad Can It Get?
Big Stock Market Swoon On Increased Trade Tensions It looks more likely that the September tariffs will go into effect as President Trump sent out a few hawkish tweets on trade. This sent the stock market plummeting on Friday, upstaging Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The stock market almost made new a correction low after it…
Data Point Suggests Recession Isn’t Coming
Amazing New Home Sales Revision It's always good look at the revisions to data as well as the latest numbers. Usually, I look at the latest numbers the closest. Revisions aren’t extreme and the market reacts to the latest numbers. In the case of the July new home sales report, the revision was extreme, which…
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