Extreme Options Activity Could Cause A Tech Crash
Big Monday Rally Monday’s have almost always been positive this summer. This Monday didn’t disappoint as there was a major rally in the small caps especially. Russell 2000 was up 2.6%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose 1.87% and 1.27%. Prior to September, it was very rare for the Nasdaq to underperform small caps. …
Fed Not Even Close To Guiding For Rate Hikes
Fed Meeting Coming Fed’s September meeting is on Wednesday. We all don’t expect the Fed to raise rates for the next year at least, so it’s obviously not going to do so this week. In fact, you can't find anyone who thinks the Fed will raise rates at this meeting. The chart below shows Cornerstone…
Sell the Market Rally?
The drivers of the marketplace that led the market to new all time highs were not participating in today's rally. Should you be concerned? Watch tonight's crucial video update to find out…
Factor Rotation Hasn’t Happened Yet
Growth Investors Aren’t Scared It’s safe to say this correction hasn’t gone the way value investors envisioned it would when they expected one in late August. Large cap growth firms have underperformed the market, but small cap value has still fallen. This has been a wide reaching correction. Tech stocks are no longer the flight…
Economic Reopening Continues In Earnest
Economy Normalizes The economy normalizedquickly from lockdown to neutral from March to mid-June as shown in the chart below. Interestingly, the opening of the economy started slowing a week after the cyclical stocks peaked on June 8th. The stock market probably predicted this change by looking at the rate of change of new COVID-19 cases.…
Volatility Lower, Market Lower? We have a problem
Volatility lower with market lower--VIX, SPX--VVIX Volume dropping on stocks selling off--AAPL--FB--AMZN--TSLA Selling has not really kicked in... volatility says so! Do NOT Buy the Market Dips opportunities ?--XLU--HYG Hitting the Expected MoveSPX Expected Move--last week-- 107.71 (expected move)--next week-- 99.75
Correction Still Not Over
Correction Not Over (But Tesla Rallies) Just because the stock market rebounded, doesn’t mean the correction is over. Sure enough, there was a selloff on Thursday with the S&P 500 falling 1.76%. Nasdaq fell 1.99% and the Russell 2000 fell 1.23%. Tech stocks underperformed, but not by as much as most thought they would. Apple…
Hurricane, Wildfires Increase Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims Rise There is a lot of nuance to the jobless claims report. If you just look at the seasonal adjusted headline data, you’ll miss important details. In the week of September 5th, seasonally adjusted initial claims stayed the same at 884,000 which was above estimates for 828,000. It’s really tough to predict where…
Markets Return to the Scene of the Crime
What's old is new again and we find ourselves right back to where we were on Tuesday at a key support level that, unlike then when we saw an expected bounce, odds for a breakdown are increasing. What levels remain critical for your short term trades and what clues can sector strength and weakness give…
Druckenmiller Sees Stock Market Mania and Higher Inflation
Druckenmiller Predicts Higher Inflation It's true that the stock market could recover for a few days, but the intermediate term result will be lower. Don’t take your eyes off the prize, just because stocks recovered on Wednesday. To paraphrase Druckenmiller: he said a 10% decline in the stock market does nothing because it’s so far…
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