Apple Reports An Earnings Beat With Hair
AAPL Beats Estimates But iPhone Sales Decline AAPL reported Q1 2018 EPS of $3.89 which beat estimates for $3.86. Revenues were $88.3 billion which beat estimates for $87.28 billion. The chart below shows the changes to 2018 full year earnings estimates as a result of the quarter. The low estimate came up; the high estimate…
Review Of Facebook & Microsoftâs Earnings Reports
Facebookâs Earnings Beat, But The Firm Shows Cracks After the bell on Wednesday, two of the most important firms in the market reported earnings. Iâll review both in this post. First, letâs look at Facebook. The overall numbers were good, but I see cracks in the business which might be reflected in the stock in the…
Apple iPhone X Sales In Focus On February 1st
AAPL Earnings After The Bell On Thursday Apple stock is down 6.7% since January 18th because investors are worried about iPhone X sales. The worries stem from the report that the company cut its supplier orders. Initially it was reported that Apple cut iPhone X orders by 20 million which was half the initial estimates. However, a…
Markets Calm As The Italian Democratic Party Craters In The Polls
Italian Election Update The general election in Italy is now about a month away as it will be held on March 4th. The chart below shows the latest trends in the polling. As you can see, the left leaning establishment Peopleâs Democratic party has been cratering in the polls. This shows the high level of…
The Good News Is Priced In - McDonald's, Long Term Stocks
McDonaldâs Reports Great Results With the weakness from the Starbucks earnings report, investors were uncertain whether Starbucks did poorly because of execution issues or because of macroeconomic issues. The company blamed changes in the consumersâ tastes for the miss. The holiday drinks didnât sell well. This led me to believe the environment is fine; it…
Did The Consumer Just Top Tick The Stock Market?
Consumers Were Confident About Stocks Itâs interesting to see the amazing Conference Board consumer confidence survey after the recent two day selloff in stocks. The surveyâs cutoff date was January 18th which means it doesnât include the latest selloff. This recent report was historically optimistic which shows us that the sell off might continue. As you…
Solid Q4 GDP Report Portends Good 2018 Economy
Do Yields Matter Now? The stock market fell modestly on Monday as the S&P 500 was down 0.67%. Because the market has had such a spectacular year, this is the worst day so far. The 99 day streak without a 0.6% decline, which was the longest streak ever, ended. Some are blaming the increase in…
Mid-Term Election Years Have The Biggest Drawdowns
Q4 Earnings Look Great So Far Last week the FactSet aggregate S&P 500 calculations were severely altered by Citigroupâs one time loss related to the tax cut. This week FactSet changed the numbers as they calculated Citigroupâs earnings to be $1.28 instead of -$7.15. This excludes the one time write off related to the tax…
Timing The Late Cycle
The Other Model Indicators Let's take a look at the indicators in the macro model to see whether the stock market is overvalued and if the economy is late in the cycle. In my opinion, many of the indicators are distorted making this model a talking point rather than actionable advice. I skipped the consumer…
Is The Market Near A Top?
Extremely Extended Bull Market According to the RSI, the Dow was the most bullish since 1904 three days ago and it has been up since then! With records being topped, itâs interesting to see a comprehensive look at a bunch of indicators. The macro model below does just that as it shows the periods since…
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