Dollar Index Might Be Near Its Peak
Dollar Index - Stocks Finally Rally Wednesday The S&P 500 opened up big, but gave back some of its gains in the afternoon. It closed up 0.54%. From the peak of the day to the close, it fell 1.26%. This market wants to rally. But there is so much uncertainty about the trade war with…
Stocks Vacillate Sharply, But Stay Above The February Low
Stocks Vacillate - Very Volatile Tuesday Volatile swings continued Tuesday as the S&P 500 opened up big. Then it gave back all the gains and fell. Next it rallied a bit more, and finally closed down 0.04%. At the morning peak, the S&P 500 was up 1.3%. From the morning peak to the afternoon trough, the…
Consumer Discretionary Stocks Signal A Recession Isn’t Coming
Consumer Discretionary Stocks Tell the Future The relative performance of consumer discretionary sector gives us an indicator where the economy is headed. As you can see from the chart below, the consumer discretionary sector has outperformed the S&P 500 as of September 30th. That suggests a recession isn’t coming soon. The chart shows relative outperformance…
Stocks Are The Cheapest Since The Beginning Of 2016
Stocks - Another Day With Wild Swings Wild swings in the stock market where big losses turn into gains aren’t necessarily positive. They signal the heightened volatility environment is continuing rather than that stocks are ready to rally. Monday was another day with big swings as the S&P 500 fell 1.83% in the morning before…
Full Employment To Be Reached In 2020
Full Employment - Labor Market Filling Up Don’t use the stock market’s reaction on Friday as a litmus test for the strength of the November labor report because the market has been very volatile. Job creation was a slightly disappointing. It might indicate the labor market is near full employment. Overall labor force participation rate…
Stocks Crater As Extreme Fear Sweeps Wall Street
Stocks Crater - Volatile Friday The stock market cratered Friday morning. Unlike Thursday, the market didn’t recover as the S&P 500 fell 2.33%. Nasdaq fell 3.05% after outperforming Thursday. Russell 2000 fell 1.98%. I have forgotten to mention one reason the Russell 2000 has been falling rapidly in the past couple months is because it…
Stocks Move Violently As Traders Fear A Trade War & The Hawkish Fed
Stocks Move Violently - Huge Reversal On Thursday The S&P 500 crashed Thursday morning. It bottomed at 2,624 at 11:30 AM which was a 2.83% decline. It rallied in the afternoon to close down only 0.15%. Many of the bulls may feel like that’s a sign of a reversal. But I think it’s a sign…
MBA Mortgage Applications Increase 2 Straight Weeks
MBA Mortgage Applications - Weak Construction Spending Growth Before getting into MBA Mortgage Applications, let's review construction spending growth. Construction spending growth missed estimates and decelerated sharply on a year over year basis. Private residential spending growth fell sharply. On a month over month basis, construction spending fell 0.1%. That missed estimates for 0.3% growth and…
Stocks Decline 3% For The 5th Time In 2018
Stocks Decline - Yield Curve Panic Sends Stocks Cratering Many investors have been following the yield curve all year. For the first time in this cycle, it appears the stock market recognized the flattening curve. Personally, I find it interesting how indicators evolve. When everyone follows an indicator, its results change. This doesn’t necessarily mean…
Economy Not Falling Off A Cliff
Economy - No Need To Panic It’s very important to avoid being emotionally affected by the stock market tape. If you are moved by it, don’t trade based on those emotions. Stocks swing wildly while the economy shifts slowly. There are only extreme, quick moves in the economy in times of panic during terrible recessions…
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