Government Shutdown Causes Q1 GDP Growth Estimates To Fall
Government Shutdown - 5 Day Winning Streak The stock market is on fire as the S&P 500 is on a 5 day winning streak. It was up 0.45% on Thursday. The 14 day RSI has gone from below 20 on December 24th to 52.08. It’s on its way to signaling the market is overbought. CNN fear and…
Jobless Claims Fall To 216,000: Signaling Strong Labor Market
Jobless Claims - Inflation Expectations In November, I started discussing how the Fed didn’t need to hike rates in December or in 2019 because inflation was cratering. Now is a great time to be a worker because inflation is falling and wage growth is rising. The labor market is filling up which means many people…
Fed Acknowledges Risk Factors In Minutes
Fed - Stocks Are Getting Overbought Before getting into the Fed, let's review the market. With the 0.41% rally in the S&P 500, the index reached a 4 day winning streak on Wednesday. More importantly, the S&P 500 is up 9.95% since the bottom on Christmas Eve. The stock market is now overbought in my…
Millennials Face High Student Loan Debt & Expensive Housing
Millennials - Weak Wage Growth Coming? The December jobs report blew away expectations and provided fuel for the massive quick rally off the lows in late December. There’s no question that the labor market is strong because jobless claims are low and the previous two months were revised to show more jobs were created. The…
Stocks - Biggest Reversal Since March 2009
Stocks - Biggest Reversal - Continue Rallying On Tuesday Stocks continued their rally off the Christmas Eve bottom on Tuesday as the S&P 500 increased 0.97%. The S&P 500 is now up 9.5% from the Christmas Eve low. Many prominent technical analysts would probably tell you stocks can’t bottom on a low volume day like Christmas…
Q1 2019 EPS Growth Expected To Be 5.02%
Q1 2019 EPS Growth - The Cyclicals Are Cheap Relative To The S&P 500 The chart below is shocking because the forward PE of cyclicals versus the forward PE of the S&P 500 is much lower than it has been since 1980. There are a few takeaways from this metric. The most obvious one is cheap…
Wage Growth - Strongest Production Non-Supervisory Since 2009
Wage Growth - December Wage Growth Was Strong The December labor report was strong across the board. Specifically, construction added 38,000 jobs, retail trade added 24,000. Trade & transportation added 34,000, and professional & business added 43,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings growth was 0.4% month over month which beat estimates for 0.3% and last month’s…
Stellar December Labor Report Causes Stocks To Skyrocket
Stellar December Labor Report - Expectations Were Grim For The December Jobs Report Heading into the December jobs report, which was released on Friday, January 4th, the S&P 500 was 4.12% above its bear market trough. One of the top conversation topics in the financial media before the report was released was if a recession was…
Apple Pre-Announces Negative Guidance For The First Time Since 2002
Apple Pre-Announces Negative Results Apple had a bad Q1 even though overall U.S. retail sales were great. The firm lowered its Q1 revenue guidance from a range of $89 billion-$93 billion to $84 billion. This wildly missed the Street’s consensus for $91.3 billion. Furthermore, the firm’s gross margin guidance fell from 38% to 38.5% to…
Market Predictions For 2019
Market Predictions - Still Expecting A Trade Deal Between America & China 2018 was a tumultuous year for markets partially because of the uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy. Deals were made with countries such as Canada and Mexico. But the tensions with China were ratcheted up much of the year. Then in early December,…
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