First Yield Curve Inversion: Recession Coming?
First Yield Curve Inversion - Trade Related Rally On Monday The S&P 500 rallied 1.09% on news that China and America agreed to a 90 day negotiating window where tariffs wonât be raised. Initially, the futures market rallied heavily, but during normal trading hours it wasnât a spectacular day. This is because the prospect of…
Inflation Misses Estimates, Giving The Fed A Chance To Pause Rate Hikes
Inflation Misses Estimates PCE inflation is going to decelerate. It will face tough comparisons in the next few months. These include slowing global growth and housing price growth. Also, commodity prices are falling. The Bloomberg CRB commodity ETF is down 5.56% year to date. Headline PCE inflation was up 0.2% month over month in October.…
Yield Curve Comes Close To Inverting
Yield Curve - Friday Ends Strong Week This was an amazing week for stocks. The S&P 500 increased 4.85%. Thatâs greater than the entire year to date increase which is 3.24%. Stocks rallied 0.82% on Friday because of hopes that America and China will make a trade deal. Itâs dangerous for stocks to rally on…
Regional Fed Indexes Signal An Incoming Weak ISM Report
Regional Fed Indexes - Stocks Fall Slightly When the S&P 500 was down, the headlines blamed worries about tariffs. When stocks were up, the Fed got the credit as their Minutes were released Thursday. Clearly, this is the wrong way to look at the market because the tariff news wonât come out until Friday and…
October New Home Sales Fall 12%
October New Home Sales - Amazon Takes Everything Before we get into October new home sales, let's review the overall market action over the past few days. Amazing is gaining an increasingly large piece of the retail pie. It is nabbing a huge percentage of retail growth. As you can see from the chart below,…
Powell Statement - Stocks MisinterpretÂ
Powell Statement - Huge Rally On Powellâs Speech Powellâs speech followed along with what the vice chair stated earlier in the week. It wasnât a policy change. But the stock market accepted it as a dovish turn. Predicting how markets react to Fed statements is tough. If I would have had the speech a few…
Same Store Retail Sales Growth - Best In 12 Years
Same Store Retail - Department Store Black Friday Shopping Bears will claim Black Friday holiday shopping was weak because traffic to stores fell, while bulls will point to great online sales growth. Personally, I think it was a great holiday shopping season. Online sales growth had been sagging a bit recently. However, Black Friday is…
Markets Await Trumpâs Summit With Xi
Markets - Another Rebound, But Only For Big Caps The S&P 500 managed to close positive after spending some of the day negative. It would have been psychologically tough for the bulls to withstand a decline after the big rally on Friday which occurred. Stocks were extremely oversold. With this 0.33% increase in the S&P…
Trade Growth Projected To Slow To 3.7% in 2019
Trade Growth - Decent November PMI Flash, But Growth Is Weakening Every economic report should be reviewed with the understanding that economic growth is slowing. Good reports are either outliers or possible green shoots for a re-acceleration of GDP growth. The October Markit PMI flash reading was solid even though other reports such as durable…
Stocks Rally Despite GM Layoff Announcement
Stocks Rally - Big Monday Rally There are often big rallies within corrections and bear markets. Monday was an example of this as tech led the market higher. S&P 500 was up 1.55%, Nasdaq was up 2.06%, and Russell 2000 was up 1.16%. This was an oversold rally as the CNN fear and greed index…
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