[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I’m a little concerned with the bullish trend we’ve seen shaping up lately. Lower highs are starting to creep into the equities picture. The trouble in Japan with the yen and the lack of change in policy there could be starting to spill over across financial markets; global capital is seeking refuge in the dollar. I don’t mean to suggest it’s all doom and gloom – it isn’t. There are some bright spots, which we’ll talk about in a second. We’ll talk about how to prepare for the congestion I see coming up, how to avoid getting caught up in the chop, and some steps we can take to manage risk properly. Let’s get started…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Tech had a pretty good day. Tesla shares finished the day more than 15% above where they started on news the company will roll out its advanced driver assistance tech in China. Mega-cap stablemate Apple also helped lift the S&P 500 as Citi confirmed the stock would keep a “Buy” rating ahead of May 2 earnings report. But it wasn’t all smiles and sunshine – the bullish intraday moves were almost spoiled at around 3 PM by the release of the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding reports, which sparked a fit of bearishness. And that’s just Monday… The week promises to be very eventful indeed – some of the biggest companies on the S&P 500, like Apple and Amazon, will report earnings this week. The Fed will meet this week, too, which could inject some fear and doubt into a rally that’s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmZzi8HQKXs SPY ripped around 53 bucks to the upside before the close… but I don’t feel great about it. I’d never hate on a good rally, but this ain’t that. That might change next week, but we’ll deal with that when we come to it. My unease with this upswing has got nothing to do with MAC/D… nothing to do with Fibs… it’s not Bollinger bands, either. It’s the risk assets in play right now. They are, as I’ll explain in a second, not behaving correctly at all given the intense bounce we’re seeing play out today. Right now, I’m going to prove to you that the emperor’s got no clothes…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Over the past few weeks we’ve talked about the upside in shorting bonds – and taken some positions accordingly over in the Live Trading Room. We’ve talked about weakness in homebuilders’ stocks, too, and we’ve also acted on that thesis. There are some interesting developments that suggest we could be in for lower lows there – more on that in a minute. And there are the banks, as well – they’re in play, too. Bonds, banks, and builders are working together right now, after a fashion, and if we play it correctly, there’s more upside in it for us. Let’s talk about it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Last week I warned everyone that volatility was going to go on a rampage. And that’s exactly what it did. And here’s the thing: It’s not over, not by a long shot. The rally sputtered and nearly died today. By the close it had made up some ground to end up… “massively unchanged.” But in the larger context of the week, it’s anything but. The expected move for the week was 96 – could be 96 up or 96 down. It’s only Wednesday, and we’re already at the upper edge. That alone is evidence the beast is still out there and it’s hungry. There’s more. One of volatility’s hallmarks is a violent up-move. That’s just what we’ve seen. Let me explain what’s going on here – and why it could be pretty painful for the unprepared…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We were excited for last week’s lows, and for a good reason. I told everyone to wrestle with the bear and get in the market and go shopping. We’re off those levels now, and I still think taking advantage of the selloff was the right call. I’m seeing some encouraging signs bubbling underneath the rally we’ve seen over the last two sessions. Tech and chip stocks are leading the move higher. (Though I still think the setups are better in energy right now – more on that in a minute.) Beyond equities, things look even more exciting, particularly the carry trade in the Japanese yen. The market wants Japan’s central bankers to end their negative interest-rate policy, and there are rumblings, but traders are calling their bluff. I think there are great opportunities there. Bitcoin and crypto are behaving nicely,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks rallied back strongly today after shaving off more than 1% last week, but the buying fizzled heading into the close. It was gold, which until recently had been rock-solid, that took the biggest hit as traders took profits. But the question on every trader’s mind right now has to be: “Can we trust it?” With earnings coming up fast, that question takes on even more urgency. Visa, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla are reporting this week, and we could see volatility rebound dramatically. Here’s what I see…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Last week, I went out and said the market was on the “edge of the abyss” of volatility. Plenty of people probably thought I was freaking out – after all, plenty of tech stocks were hitting highs. But I said at the time that tech had taken no damage. I said tech needs to take a big hit before volatility can come out and start collecting heads. Well, that’s what happened this week: damage. We’re starting to see damage to leaders like Nvidia. Meta and Amazon are starting to get dinged, too. (Forget about Netflix – it doesn’t have the market cap to move entire indexes.) And by damage, I mean NVDA alone is down 10-freakin’-percent for the day. If that’s not damage I don’t know what is. With all that said, I’m not necessarily a bear – I’m just

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Texas-based D.R. Horton is the biggest homebuilder in the United States. They just turned in a stellar earnings report. Revenue is up by $1 billion, guidance suggests even better performance ahead, and all of this in a historically tight American housing market. The market… doesn’t care. The stock experienced a classic “sell the news” dip today. But I think as traders we need to care – this is a massive player in a bellwether sector. So we’ll look at what happened, and dive even deeper into the key ratios of some other major homebuilders. Time to sort the weak from the strong ahead of upcoming earnings. Let’s get to it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market is volatile right now, no doubt, but it could turn into an absolute mess over the next couple of trading sessions. What’s the difference between “volatile” and a “mess?” Well… The activity we’re seeing right now is disconnected, jumbled – too fast. Every little data point, every offhand comment from a Fedhead, every announcement is being traded. We’re not just seeing small moves here, either; we’re seeing 20- and 30-handle moves in very short timeframes. It all comes down to what we’ll see tomorrow and Friday. As usual, the tech sector is going to play a key role in all this. Here’s how…