[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada moved to cut overnight rates 25 basis points this week. Then, today, Christine Lagarde’s European Central Bank cut Eurozone rates 25 basis points. So now everyone and their mother wants to know if Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are going to follow suit – sometime soon. Fed funds futures suggest a cut is likely in September (but watch out if jobs numbers are weaker than expected). But something’s off. The dollar should be ripping in this environment; it isn’t. In fact, if you look at movements in commodities and emerging markets, it looks like the greenback is weakening. That’s the real consequence of poor, debt-driven policy and a decade of artificially low interest rates. Whatever you think you’re going to gain by lower rates is taken away by higher costs. Then again,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”]<img src=”https://theotrade.com/wp-content/themes/optimizePressTheme/lib/images/video_placeholder.png” alt=”PGlmcmFtZSB3aWR0aD0iNjQwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjM2MCIgc3JjPSJodHRwczovL3d3dy55b3V0dWJlLW5vY29va2llLmNvbS9lbWJlZC82SWFGbzMyMFBWND9zaT1lTzVTUEN2THBUdW1YS19YIiB0aXRsZT0iWW91VHViZSB2aWRlbyBwbGF5ZXIiIGZyYW1lYm9yZGVyPSIwIiBhbGxvdz0iYWNjZWxlcm9tZXRlcjsgYXV0b3BsYXk7IGNsaXBib2FyZC13cml0ZTsgZW5jcnlwdGVkLW1lZGlhOyBneXJvc2NvcGU7IHBpY3R1cmUtaW4tcGljdHVyZTsgd2ViLXNoYXJlIiByZWZlcnJlcnBvbGljeT0ic3RyaWN0LW9yaWdpbi13aGVuLWNyb3NzLW9yaWdpbiIgYWxsb3dmdWxsc2NyZWVuPSIiPjwvaWZyYW1lPg==” width=”1″ height=”1″ />[/video_player] A trillion dollars here, a trillion dollars there, and pretty soon you’re talking serious money. On the surface, Nvidia is a massive success story… A semiconductor stock few had even heard of ten years ago takes the market by storm and rides the AI boom to the Trillion-Dollar Clubhouse. It has a $3.01 trillion market cap, to be precise. In terms of market cap, it’s neck and neck with Apple as of today. As an optionable stock, its options pack around two- to two-and-a-half times more implied volatility 30 days out than its fellow big boys like Apple and Microsoft. In fact, as I’ll show you in a second, if you volatility-weight those three, you see Nvidia behaves more like a $7 trillion stock. It’s a systematic (not systemic) risk to the markets; it practically

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The tape is still mixed. Tech-sector stocks and cryptocurrency look good – I like it – and they could well lead stocks to new all-time highs in the weeks ahead. Utility stocks seem to have snuffed out any strength in bonds, and if rates keep falling, we could see a boost in the two worst-performing S&P 500 sectors this year: real estate and consumer discretionaries. A nice comeback there wouldn’t surprise me. Energy-sector stocks and bonds do not look good, though. There’s an ominous warning there, and we’ll talk about that and more right now…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] This evening, I’m going to show you exactly how you can take advantage of this unfolding opportunity. Let’s get started…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I’m traveling today, back to the island, with a loooong layover in Miami.  Fitting after a week like this. IN/OUT just closed out its eighth winner, but the markets closed out a short week-long losing streak that somehow managed to feel even longer. Of course, it caps a month of 4% to 6% gains for both indexes, but I won’t be awarding any style points. Normally, I could care less about what happens on the Dow Industrials – for traders, the one to watch is the S&P 500. But… when there’s smoke… when there’s excitement brewing… I’ve got to keep my eye on it. And that’s what’s happening right now. The Dow and the S&P 500 are actually diverging right now… Not only that, but there are significant rotations playing out right now, which we’ll get into.  Like I said,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player]   Conditions are looking good for the move I have in mind today… Crude futures spiked yesterday, up to $80.62… and then sold off today, pretty much erasing the gains of the previous two sessions. From a technical perspective, and I’ll show you the charts in just a second, this pushes us, bearishly, toward the lows. Now, interestingly, there happens to be an inverse correlation between oil prices, energy, and utilities. See where I’m going with this? I’ll show you…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The past few U.S. Treasury auctions have attracted weak demand, particularly from foreign buyers. That’s dragged bond prices lower and pushed yields higher. This has upset the tenuous balance the market has achieved over the past few weeks, and we’re beginning to see the likelihood of the market’s worst fears being realized: higher for longer! That weak demand, coupled with intractable debt and inflation fears, and a relatively tapped-out U.S. consumer means the rise in equity prices is becoming more labored. The options market tells us that, if we’re long, we’d better be hedged. Let’s look at some signals of the underlying stress and uncertainty throwing higher equity prices into doubt…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stick around the markets long enough and you’ll hear it: “Sell in May and go away.” It’s an old saying, dating from when Wall Street’s white-shoe stockbrokers (once the only game in town) fled Manhattan for a summer in the Hamptons… and volumes hit the floor. I’m sure brokers are still taking vacations, but times have changed. May’s almost over, and stocks, led by Nvidia’s recent breakout, are hitting all-time highs right now. In fact, the people following along in my chatroom and my Sector Leader Bullseye research are profiting from my bullish NVDA strategy as we speak. And make no mistake: Nvidia is not the only bullish opportunity right now. The energy sector, for instance, has potential right now – we’ll talk about that in a second. A change in yields, too, could mean a different environment heading into

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There’s an old (but usually true) cliche for times like we’re in now: “Bad news is good news,” meaning, terrible economic news is great for the markets, because it could lead to looser policy at the Fed. Well, if that’s true… you don’t have to be Warren Buffett to figure out what good data could mean. Look at the way markets behaved this week – starting with the SPX, the Mother of All Products. For the week’s first two sessions, we got nothing. A test pattern. Completely stagnated. Low volume, zilch. Wednesday, we got the FOMC minutes which, for the first time in a while, indicated a willingness to raise rates because inflation is still too damn high. This at a time when the market is still anticipating one cut (though the big boys like Goldman have said they expect

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Today, the media was watching (and writing) about Nvidia, which yesterday reported dynamite earnings and announced a 10-for-1 split. But I was watching… a steep bond breakdown; a surging dollar; and crashing commodities. There’s a lot to talk about this evening, and I’ll show you my charts in a second. For now, you need to know that this situation is where the danger, the opportunity, and the action are right now. We’re going to talk defensive plays, too – getting long in healthcare in tickers like BMY and more. Let’s get started…