[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] CPI came screaming in this morning at 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%. That’s hot in anyone’s book – and you could almost hear the market cry as its hopes of a summer rate cut up and died. The S&P 500 started weak and got weaker along the way to a 0.95% loss for the day. Still, it could have been worse. Tech names like Meta and Nvidia actually managed a move higher. Interest rates are going to be the killer here. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is closing in on 5% – really ugly. We’re seeing some of the biggest volume in the bond market in recent history, and as we’ll see in a minute, it ain’t good. Let’s take a look…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks are currently moving sideways; they’re consolidating almost entirely across the board. But if you’ve been with me for a while, you know I like to think and trade in terms of cycles, and I’m seeing signs that we could be late in the equity market cycle. That’s because we’ve seen recent outperformance in the “inflation trade,” energy, basic materials, and even utilities. So, I’ve been pretty cautious over the last few weeks, but I’m beginning to be more bullish. The consolidation we’re seeing right now is healthy, and we’ve seen a correction in time, as opposed to price. I think the short-term direction of stock prices is really at the mercy of bonds right now. If they continue to sell off, we’ll see energy and industrials continue to outperform. But if a new cycle begins, I’d expect tech and

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Energy stocks have been on a tear recently. Gold, silver, and other metal shares have had an impressive run, too. Their rise has been particularly impressive because the rally has defied the long odds imposed by rising bond yields. But that’s all in some doubt now. These markets find themselves in a fairly precarious position thanks to a collapsing dollar. If that fall continues, it’ll lead to higher prices. Besides, the price action of energy and metals shares looks mighty extended right now. The government is teeing up some key inflation data for release this week, and if traders don’t like what they see, these bellwether commodities could start falling fast. So, time to take profits – here’s what to do…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpHjZVNqMek We just lived through the most volatile week this year – and a lot of people following along with my picks got the chance to clean up. (More on that in a second.)  And I don’t think we’ve seen the last of the turbulence… not by a longshot.  Tonight we’re going to look at what we can expect (and what we gained) from SPY and QQQ of course, but also XLE, MSFT, and XHB – we took down a 30% one-day profit on that one.  We’ll look at signals I’m seeing play out in the big bad bond market, as well as inflationary signs in gold. And of course we’ll see how we did with this week’s expected move.  Let’s go…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] After a morning of calm, steady gains, the markets got a significant jolt of dread this afternoon. News hit that Israel was boosting security measures at its worldwide embassies and consulates in anticipation of Iranian retaliation for a recent Israeli attack. This whipped the bulls and in a matter of minutes, the day’s gains turned into steep losses – nearly 2% on the S&P 500 alone. But, like the saying goes, in crisis there’s opportunity. Tonight, we’ll look at aerospace and defense stocks like NOC, LMT, LHX, and DFEN that tend to do well in geopolitically tense times. We’ll look at other bearish opportunities in the weakening economy – bear plays in consumer discretionary and durable goods companies like WHR, MHK, and GRMN. This’ll be particularly important if we see a slowdown in the jobs market tomorrow. There’s a lot

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Dozens of the biggest stocks on the market are at or near their all-time highs. Valuations are still at nosebleed levels. So why don’t I feel great? Because unlike the market, where hopium and craziness can take you really, really far, severe cracks are starting to show in the U.S. economy… where hopium and craziness will get you way down a $35 trillion hole. In other words, there’s a big disconnect between the price action of these stocks (which are in the economy, duh) and the economy itself. But if we look a little closer, we can see warnings in some of these stocks themselves. Retail stocks, for instance, are getting annihilated. Let’s look at what all this means and make some sense of it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The second quarter of 2024 is here, and so far the sellers are running the table. Bonds are selling off and the prospect of a 5% 10-year Treasury yield looks closer than it has in a long time. Investors there have made their decision on inflation. Stocks are bleeding out, too, led by the tech sector; the NASDAQ has been hit much harder than the S&P 500. On the other hand, precious metals are showing impressive strength, and the energy sector is one of few gainers out there. That tells me we should look for outperformance in traditionally defensive investments in the coming weeks. Here’s what I see…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Equities had a decidedly mixed day – just three of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher by 4 PM. The energy sector, as tracked by the XLE ETF, was one of those standouts, and it’s easy to see why: Geopolitical risk and tension is continuing to increase, and supply is getting thin. Oil in particular looks bullish. Gas prices could hit or exceed $4 a gallon by spring. That’s inflationary, and that’s spooking bond traders – bonds sold off steeply as yields spiked. I think energy options are where it’s “at” right now, so that’s what we’ll look at today…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] —Inflation in-line but not dead —anemic volume at the end of the quarter —NVDA and tech squeeze full stop —XLK under performs INTC, AAPL, TSLA —correlation higher —financials and energy —watching retail —time to hedge SPX Expected Move — –last week — 54.11 (4–day expected move) –next week– 62.52 (5–day expected move)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It has been apparent to most investors that AI and specifically NVDA has driven markets to record highs. NVDA is finally showing signs of slowing and even a potential trend reversal pattern, a double top. If the Double Top is confirmed, we expect correlated moves in indexes and individual stocks. Today we discussed the potential pullbacks and reversals in major index like the NASDAQ and S&P 500. We looked at individual stocks including ORCL, AVGO, SMCI and CRM as well as less aggressive ETFS like SMH and IGV.