[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft – together they’re worth more than $10 trillion-with-a-”T.” They account for a bit less than a quarter of the S&P 500 by weight. Incidentally, it’s been more than 50 years since the S&P 500’s top stocks were this concentrated. Well, they’re in real trouble now. All four of those mega-caps were down for the day. I’ve been about this all week, watching – and warning – as the cracks formed. It’s really just capital rotation keeping the S&P 500 above water right now. We’re going to look at what that means in this week’s wrap-up. We’ll grapple with the return of inflation and the meaning of inverted SKEW (tail risk) readings for Nvidia and Super Micro. And we’ll look at how our expected move predictions did. Let’s rock and roll…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The almighty American consumer is… spread a little thin right now. A little worse for the wear. That’s not just a hunch. Today’s retail sales numbers were negative – very negative. But to understand what’s really happening we have to get in and look behind that headline 0.8% drop. A lot of that decline took place in auto sales; that’s more confirmation that consumers are tired out. That’s the smoking gun, in fact, and we’ll look right down the barrel. Of course we’ll investigate the number of delinquent auto loans, as well. Let’s dive in…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The mainstream narrative today was, “Oh, look – a bounceback rally after a big down day.” But look just a little deeper, pull on the threads, and you find the situation is a lot more alarming than I think a lot of people realize right now. Apple, for one, did not advance today. Not only that, it breached its expected move in a big way, sinking around 0.59% by the end of the day. Not a good look for the bulls. Nvidia (one of the most dangerous stocks on the market, in my opinion – I’m on the record here) overtook Google to attain the third-largest market cap in Silicon Valley. If it were a world economy, it would fall somewhere between Mexico and Russia. And if that’s not alarming enough, the good old SKEW index is hitting record highs.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Over the past few weeks, we’ve talked about some of the various unsettling intermarket signals, like the strengthening dollar, that have come across the screens. Today, in the wake of a higher-than-expected inflation reading, the danger that had been lurking “out there” is now in our laps. The greenback is getting even stronger, and stocks, led by chipmakers, are dropping fast. Not too long ago, the odds of a March Fed rate cut were high. Today, there’s a 60% chance there will be no cut in May. With the CPI numbers we’ve just seen, no one’s seriously taking bets until June. But that’s not to say there are no opportunities out there. We’ll be looking at where the money’s headed in today’s video.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I hope you didn’t get your fill of competition this weekend, because we’re about to be treated to a matchup that I think will give Super Bowl LVIII a run for the money… It’s all about the bulls vs. the bears. Here’s what I mean… The S&P 500 started off the day pretty strong but slowly started to give up ground – it ended the day down 0.095%. That’s hardly a rout, but the VIX – the “Fear Gauge” of volatility – had a much better day. It was up better than 7% by the close. We’re entering another data-heavy week, and investors are starting to think about risk. Tech gave up ground, while defensive stocks, value, and small-caps gained. Let me walk you through what’s happening – we’ll look at XLK, NVDA, ARM and everything in between…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] You know it as “Nvidia, the Wall Street darling that for some reason is worth $1.7 trillion.” I know it as “Nvidia: The most dangerous stock in the S&P 500 right now.” NVDA’s valuation is so far out of whack, so divorced from reality that it has become a threat and a symbol of what’s wrong here. We’ll get to why… In fact, this wildly bullish environment is really papering over some very unhealthy market internals. I’m going to run through some Spiders that show quite a few sectors are starting to weaken. I’ll show you a scan that shows just 20% of the S&P 500 is at highs. And of course we’ll look at our expected move for next week. This past week we were looking for a 68.27 five-day move. I’ll show you how we did…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There comes a time in any economic cycle when inflation can roll over and begin a period of deflation. We’re at that point now, and just to make things interesting, we’re in the middle of a “Goldilocks” run in stocks. That makes now the perfect time to look at industries and assets that tend to outperform in inflationary markets. And of course we’ll look on the other side at how to capture performance in deflationary periods. Let’s go…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks just keep going up. The S&P 500 is knocking at the psychologically important 5,000 level – an all-time high and a nice, big round number. So why do I feel uneasy? I think the market is really just fixated on the prospect of upside and is turning a blind eye to some significant risks out there. I’m expecting around a $70 move on the SPX – the “mother of all products” this week – and we’re about halfway there right now. In other words, we ain’t out of the woods yet. And with the market more or less running on tech right now, investors could get the rug pulled out from under them at any second. Let me show you what I mean…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Markets are starting to come off their recent all-time highs, but it’s the tech-heavy NASDAQ that’s actually the most concerning right now. Tech, which led the markets last week, is starting to give up its leadership position, with chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD coming under pressure. With that said, a lot of the intermarket signals we look at are in fact positive, at least in the short-term. It wouldn’t be surprising to see stocks notch one more run at all-time highs before the bears come out in force. It’s a complicated market, no question; there are just as many opportunities as there are potential pitfalls. So let’s take a look at what the charts are telling us…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The Magnificent Seven propelled the markets virtually the whole of last week, despite weakness creeping in around the edges. At the same time, we saw monster volumes in the bond market as the smart money nervously eyed the exits. Stocks have drifted slightly lower at the beginning of the week, though tech and healthcare are still leading. That could change in a hurry, though. The Federal Reserve and the bond market are both speaking loudest right now, and the interest-rate-sensitive sectors will be listening. Here’s what you need to know…